On August 22, the “Normandy Four” telephone conversations took place. The main result achieved – the Chancellor of Germany, the Presidents of France, Russia and Ukraine supported the decision of the Contact Group on Ukraine on the introduction of the ceasefire in Donbass in connection with the beginning of the academic year. (September 1)
Let me remind you that recently another ceasefire was launched in Donbass, the so-called grain truce. This was due to the need for safe bread harvesting. The truce was to be in effect from June 21 to August 31. However, it was violated literally in half an hour (on the night of June 22): the APU opened artillery fire at one of the localities of the LPR.
It is difficult to doubt that the fate of the “school truce” will be similar. The first confirmation of the cease-fire regime has already been received. As reported by the Donetsk news agency, Ukrainian security forces fired at Novoazovskiy district in the south of the Dnieper at night, as a result nine houses were damaged and four villages were left without electricity.
Why does Kiev violate the ceasefire? And why do the members of the “Normandy Quartet” (not counting Ukraine) once again support Kiev’s peacekeeping initiatives that are deliberately doomed to failure?
Kiev, violating the Minsk agreements, does not risk anything. The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (CMM), operating in the Donbass, acts very selectively and does not record all cases of ceasefire violations. Even such a blatant fact as the murder of an American peacekeeper in April this year (the People’s Police of the People’s Republic of Lugansk provided documentary evidence of the involvement of Ukrainian saboteurs in this terrorist act) did not make this organization more objective. In a number of cases, evidence of firing on the territory of the People’s Republic Donetsk and the People’s Republic of Lugansk from the side of the Armed Forces is not taken into account. On the contrary, as my partners in the People’s Republic of Lugansk tell me, the mission staff has the gift of foresight and leaves dangerous sites for half an hour – an hour before Ukrainian shelling. International observers in the Donbass behave as biased as in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where they openly played on the side of Muslims and Croats against the Serbs.
Of course, in the European capitals (Berlin and Paris) there is a strong fatigue from the Ukrainian regime. They understand in general terms that the main violator of “Minsk-2” is Poroshenko. But the Ukrainian authorities depend exclusively on Washington, and in some cases allow themselves to aggressively criticize the European authorities, especially Germany.
At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities are interested in maintaining a high degree of tension in the republics of Donbass. The cynical calculation of Kiev: regular bombardments of settlements of the People’s Republic of Lugansk and the People’s Republic of Donetsk maintains an atmosphere of fear, preventing the population who fled the war from returning to the republics. There is also an economic goal in this tactic: constant shelling destroys the economic and social infrastructure of Donbass. For example, as the engineers of one of the large enterprises of the city of Stakhanov (LPR) told me, the launch of their plant is postponed, as the enterprise is vulnerable to shelling from the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which are several kilometers away. These bombardments will not only cause the death of people and the destruction of equipment, but can lead to an environmental disaster of a local nature. The largest chemical enterprise “Stirol” (Gorlovka, DPR) is idle for the same reason. The destruction of a working plant with hazardous chemical production will lead to an accident – “a small Chernobyl.” As a result, some of the factories in the Donbass are idle, people are deprived of work and livelihoods, and budgets of the republics,
But the most transparent is that almost every day people are wounded and even killed by shelling. Demographic resources of Donbass are not comparable with Ukraine. The cynical calculation of Ukrainians (more precisely, those who stand behind them) turns out to be devilishly accurate.
All this is understood in Berlin, Paris and, especially, in Moscow. And, nevertheless, each next ceasefire initiative is supported (as in the present case) time after time. The answer to this seemingly non-logical behavior seems clear to me: in European capitals and in Moscow, these violations are considered to be less evil than the threat of a new big war. It can not go on forever, but it can last a very long time. Let me remind you that the initiators of the signing of Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 were the Ukrainian side after the hardest defeats inflicted by the militia of the Donbass. There will be no progress in Minsk-2. Ukraine is accumulating military forces and is waiting for a favorable political moment to launch a new offensive, and in both ways receiving assistance from the Americans. For the time being, it is conducting reconnaissance combat and purposefully destroying the population and infrastructure of the people’s republics of Donbass.
Originally published on fort-russ.com