As became known today, September 3rd, US Republican Party candidate Donald Trump has jumped one percentage point ahead of his opponent from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton. This is evidenced by the results of a public opinion poll conducted by Reuters and the research company Ipsos. One can safely conclude that this survey has caused panic not only at the Democratic Party headquarters, but also in Ukraine.
It is well known that Ukrainian business and political structures are full of sympathy for the Democratic candidate. Viktor Pinchuk, a former Ukrainiano oligarch and the ex-leader of the Jewish Congress of Ukraine, participated in financing Clinton’s electoral campaign. Meanwhile, some members of Donald Trump’s team are being “accused” of cooperating with President Viktor Yanukovych’s entourage before the coup d’etat in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian issue is thus invisibly present in the US presidential election. Donald Trump recently generated yet another controversy by stating that Crimea’s reunification with Russia was legal and that there is even the possibility that the US will recognize the peninsula as Russian territory.
A Trump victory would be an unpleasant surprise for the Kiev regime. Kiev would be engulfed by panic if Trump wins. After all, Kiev is tied to the current US administration and its continuation in the form of Hillary Clinton and her team through a number of public and, especially, confidential contracts. For example, some of the most senior members of the ruling Democratic administration have been involved in corruption schemes in Ukraine. In May 2014, the Ukrainian gas company Burisma Holdings announced that it had appointed a new legal department director: Robert Hunter Biden, the son of US Vice President Joe Biden. This is the loudest precedent that made splashes in the media, but it is not the only one.
For the Democratic administration in the US, Ukraine is a big wardrobe with dirty laundry. If Trump wins, then the corruption investigations which he has threatened Hillary Clinton with would undoubtedly affect the behind-the-scenes business of representatives of the Democratic administration in the US’ new overseas colony of Ukraine. If such investigations would be unpleasant for the Democrats, then they would be fatal for the ruling Ukrainian establishment. Without protection from Washington, the Kiev regime is doomed.
Ever since the times of Ancient Rome, there has been one famous way out of a difficult foreign political situation – a “small victorious war.” Allow me to express one speculation which I’ve discussed with some observers in Russia and Donbass who share this opinion.
Going forward in the race to win voters’ sympathy from Donald Trump, the ruling establishment in the United States will become increasingly interested in an armed conflict. There are two possible scenarios here. The first is that the US could win a small victorious war and the Democrats’ rating would skyrocket. But the trouble is that the US doesn’t stand to well to win anything now. The second scenario is creating not so much a victory as a problem. Trump could then be blamed for this problem and for impermissibly positively speaking about Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine represents the most convenient base for implementing this plan. Pushing Ukraine into a large-scale provocation directed against Russia, which the latter cannot help but respond to, and provoking an armed conflict between the two countries is the main goal of this plan for discrediting Russia and its leader as the “aggressor.” An appeal would then be made Urbi et Orbi: “No one should ever deal with the “discredited” Putin, and Donald Trump has tried to make a deal with the Devil.” Then the full power of the propaganda machine to discredit Putin and Trump will be swung into action. We’ve seen the power of this propaganda more than once: with the former Yugoslavia, twice with Iraq, and then with Afghanistan and Libya.
This, of course, is just a speculation. I am sure that sooner or later the turn of events will lead to a sharp confrontation with Russia. Who knows, maybe this will happen on the eve of US presidential elections?
Originally published on fort-russ.com